Kontali: Global farmed salmon production set to surge

Salmon farming’s growth will be driven by fish health management, land-based production and strategic investments

After several years of marginal decline and stagnant growth, the global salmon farming industry is poised for significant expansion over the coming decade, with production projected to increase 27 percent by 2030, according to Kontali research.

This anticipated recovery will be fueled by advancements in fish health management, strategic investments and a strong increase in land-based production systems. These essential improvements will provide the foundation for sustainable growth, although experts caution that without them, the industry’s expansion potential may not be fully realized.

“The projected 27 percent growth in global salmon production by 2030 marks a pivotal moment for the industry,” said Filip Szczesny, senior financial analyst at Kontali. “Investments in fish health and land-based production are key drivers, but overcoming regulatory and environmental challenges will be crucial to realizing this potential.”

According to Kontali’s projections, Europe is set to lead the expansion with a projected 25 percent rise in production, while the Americas are expected to see more modest gains of around 11 percent. Australia and New Zealand will contribute a smaller increase of roughly 17 percent, and in Asia, China’s gradual development of land-based and offshore projects is anticipated to support growth, though large-scale production is yet to be fully realized.

Regulatory limits, including maximum allowable biomass (MAB) and stringent environmental regulations, remain key hurdles for the salmon farming industry’s growth. In Norway, for example, sea lice and fish health issues are closely linked with these constraints. To address these risks, companies are investing in innovations like sheltered cage technology and enhanced biosecurity measures aimed at reducing health risks and improving fish welfare.

Compounding these regulatory pressures, climate change is introducing unpredictable weather, temperature fluctuations and new pathogens to coastal regions, adding further complications. Ongoing investments to adapt to these evolving challenges will be critical to securing the industry’s future.

The Advocate reports from the Responsible Seafood Summit in St Andrews

Land-based salmon farming is emerging as the fastest-growing segment in the industry, driven by its potential as a politically and environmentally sustainable alternative to traditional open-water methods. By 2033, growth in land-based production is expected to make the largest contribution to overall industry expansion. Norway is pioneering flow-through technology to support this shift, while North America and Asia are drawing increased investment thanks to their proximity to key markets. Iceland is also seeing substantial investment to meet stricter biosecurity standards, underscoring the sector’s commitment to sustainable and resilient production methods.

Meanwhile, wild salmonid catches are projected to remain stable, averaging between 800,000 and 900,000 tons per year, with seasonal fluctuations.

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